Erin Dickerson’s Prayer
Lord,
As we approach Halloween, we are reminded how we don masks throughout our lives. We wear masks of fear when children attempt to scare us. We wear masks of happiness even when we are struggling. We wear masks of bravery to hide our fears and our pain.
Robert Brault is quoted as saying, “There is a child in every one of us who is still a trick-or-treater looking for a brightly lit front porch”. Help us to remember that regardless of the masks we may be donning, your porch is brightly lit and You are waiting there with open arms.
Amen.
Announcements
Buil-a-Bear – Childhood Health and Wellness
Carol Smerz, the co-chair of the Childhood Health and Wellness committee, announced that the next Build-a-Bear will be held on November 12, 2024, from 6 PM to 8 PM for children with Cancer at Dayton Children’s Hospital. Sign up online using the Member Calendar. Volunteers can show up as early as 4:30.
Adopt-a-Family 2024
Sue Jessee announced that Adopt-a-Family signups are now available. The school has given CNO a list of 50 children to help. Sign up online for one or more children using the Member Calendar. The wish lists will be distributed in November. Gift value should be $75. Gifts should be wrapped and labeled. If you prefer, you can send her or Christy Gariety a check for $75 and a volunteer will shop for you and wrap your gifts.
Veteran’s Day Flag Delivery and Retrieval
Tom Novak announced that flags will be distributed next week on November 4, 2024. Flag retrieval will be November 12 and the team can use help especially for retrieving the flags. Let Tom know if you can help.
Christmas Tree Lot Opens on November 29, 2024
Greg Griffin announced that the tree lot opens on November 29, 2024. The tree lot teams have been set and you should have received it by now. Please show up for shifts, especially the early ones, as they will be busier than normal since Thanksgiving is about a week later than normal. Tree delivery day is November 23, 2024, so come out and join the fun and get rewarded with donuts, coffee and about 15-20 chili and soups to choose from.
Debe Dockins Steals the Bell and Gavel
President Paul Boeckman has been in charge for five meetings, and each time the bell and gavel have been stolen! I’m beginning to think he’s not doing his job right. Maybe he’s aiming for an unbeatable record of bell and gavel losses!
A Wild Year of Weather: Insights from WHIO-TV Weather Specialist Nick Dunn
Nancy Lehren introduced WHIO-TV Weather Specialist Nick Dunn. He started at WHIO-TV in April 2023 and became a full time member of the Storm Center 7 team in November 2023.
Nick is currently attending Penn State University to obtain his Meteorology Certificate by the end of 2024. Not to worry though, he is an Ohio State fan. He will also look to pursue the National Weather Association Seal of Approval, and he should earn his storm chaser certification soon.
His passion for weather began as a child. Over the past several years, he has experienced a wide range of weather events, from tornadoes and snowstorms to extreme droughts and flooding. Since Ohio has four distinct seasons, he’s seen it all here.
In his free time, he enjoys spending time with his girlfriend, Kaitlin, of five plus years, and his cat, Ike. He shared that Ike was named fittingly because he zooms around the house at random. When Nancy asked what he meant, he explained that Ike is named after Hurricane Ike.
He also enjoys studying weather in other parts of the country to understand more about the ever-evolving world of weather!
Slides
The slide deck has some charts, statistics and other information that are not in this article.
You can view the slide deck of the presentation here.
Reflecting on an Extraordinary Year
Nick began by reflecting on the extraordinary events that have marked this year. “2024 has indeed been a wild year of weather,” he remarked, capturing the attention of everyone in the room. Not only have we witnessed unprecedented weather patterns, but we’ve also experienced rare celestial phenomena that have captivated many of us.
Once-in-a-Generation Eclipse and Northern Lights
He recounted the once-in-a-generation eclipse that drew countless eyes skyward, an event that will be remembered for years to come. Moreover, the Northern Lights, typically reserved for more northern latitudes, made unexpected appearances in our region. Nick explained that this was due to the sun nearing the end of its 11-year cycle, known as the solar maximum. During this period, increased sunspot activity and solar flares lead to heightened geomagnetic activity, making it possible for the aurora borealis to be seen much farther south than usual. “If you haven’t seen the Northern Lights yet,” he encouraged, “there’s still hope—they may continue to grace our skies over the next year.”
Record-Breaking Tornado Activity in Ohio
Shifting his focus to the main topic, Nick addressed the record tornado activity that Ohio has experienced this year. With a somber tone, he revealed that we’ve had 73 tornadoes in 2024, surpassing the previous record of 62 set back in 1992. To put this into perspective, Ohio typically averages 21 tornadoes annually. This means we’ve more than tripled our average tornado count this year, a statistic that left many in the audience visibly stunned.
Widespread Impact Across the State
“No corner of the state has been spared,” Nick noted, emphasizing the widespread impact of these storms. He pointed out that while Centerville has been fortunate to avoid direct hits, areas just south, like Warren and Clinton counties, have been significantly affected. In the Miami Valley alone, we’ve had 25 tornadoes, exceeding the state’s annual average within our own region.
Notable Tornado Events
Nick highlighted some of the most notable tornado events of the year:
- February Tornado in Springfield: On the ground for over 20 miles, making it the longest-track tornado ever recorded in Ohio during the month of February. “We don’t usually think about tornadoes in February,” he said, “but this year has defied expectations.”
- March Tornado from Greenville to Miami County: Another significant event occurring in a month when tornadoes are uncommon, illustrating the changing weather patterns.
- Indian Lake EF3 Tornado: Perhaps the most devastating, this tornado resulted in fatalities and injuries, primarily in mobile home parks. Nick expressed concern over the vulnerability of these communities during severe weather events. “Had this tornado occurred in June or July,” he reflected, “the impact could have been even more severe due to higher population density during those months.”
Concerning Trends Over the Past Decade
Delving deeper into the data, Nick discussed concerning trends observed over the past decade.
- Increasing Tornado Counts: Since 2010, thirteen years have featured tornado counts near or above the moving average. Eight years since 2010 have seen 30 or more confirmed tornadoes, and three of the last six years have had 40 or more.
- Rising Moving Average: The moving average of tornado occurrences has climbed from about 14 in 2010 to 21 now. “These statistics indicate a clear upward trend in tornado activity,” Nick explained, “raising questions about underlying causes and long-term implications.”
Climate Change and Tornado Formation
One of the key factors contributing to this increase, Nick explained, is the change in our climate, particularly the warming temperatures and rising dew points.
- Warm and Moist Air Masses: “Tornadoes like warm and moist air masses,” he stated, emphasizing how our environment is becoming increasingly conducive to their formation.
- Temperature and Dew Point Increases: Since 1950, mean temperatures during the spring months have increased by approximately 2.8 degrees Fahrenheit, while dew points have risen by about 1.4 degrees. These increases create conditions more favorable for tornado development, especially earlier in the year.
Anecdotal Observations of a Warming Climate
Nick shared some anecdotal observations to illustrate these changes.
- Milder Winters: “We’ve been experiencing less snowfall in March and even into April,” he noted. Historic snowstorms in October are becoming rarer.
- Earlier Springs: People find themselves wearing shorts earlier in the year, a small but telling sign of the warming trend we’re experiencing.
Understanding Severe Weather Outlooks
Understanding severe weather outlooks can be challenging due to their complexity, Nick acknowledged. He aimed to demystify these outlooks by explaining the categories defined by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
- SPC Risk Levels: The SPC issues severe weather outlooks categorizing risks from Level 1 (Marginal Risk) to Level 5 (High Risk).
- Probabilistic Nature of Risk Levels: These risk levels indicate the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of a given point.
- Significance of Lower-Level Risks: Most of our severe weather days fall into Level 1 or Level 2 categories. Even so, Nick cautioned that lower-level risks don’t guarantee safety; significant events can and have occurred on these days. For example, the Indian Lake tornado happened on a Level 2 day.
- Making Informed Decisions: “Understanding these outlooks can help us make informed decisions about our activities and preparedness,” Nick advised.
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Risk Levels
- Level 1 (Marginal Risk):
- Definition: Isolated severe storms possible; limited in duration and/or intensity.
- Frequency: Most common; we’ve had 32 days with this risk level so far this year.
- Level 2 (Slight Risk):
- Definition: Scattered severe storms possible; short-lived and not widespread.
- Frequency: Also common; 26 days so far this year.
- Level 3 (Enhanced Risk):
- Definition: Numerous severe storms possible; more persistent and/or widespread.
- Frequency: Less frequent but significant when issued.
- Level 4 (Moderate Risk):
- Definition: Widespread severe storms likely; long-lived, widespread, and intense.
- Frequency: Rare; happens 1-2 days per year at most.
- Level 5 (High Risk):
- Definition: Severe weather outbreak expected; high risk of tornadoes or derecho winds.
- Frequency: Extremely rare; occurs once every 4-5 years on average.
The Importance of Staying Informed
As he concluded his presentation, Nick emphasized the importance of staying informed and prepared. “The increasing frequency and intensity of tornadoes in Ohio reflect broader climate trends that have real-world implications for our safety and daily lives,” he reminded us. His insights served as a sobering reminder of the changing patterns in our weather and the need for vigilance as we navigate these shifts.
Question and Answer
Q: What’s your take on global warming, not just in our area, but in general?
A: Nick acknowledged that regardless of one’s stance on global warming, we’re undeniably seeing its effects. Temperatures are rising, with 90-degree days occurring earlier and lasting longer. For instance, on the day of the talk, parts of Ohio were approaching 80 degrees, breaking records not touched since the 1990s. He believes we’re witnessing evidence of a warming climate, which may lead to shorter winters over the next decade. Historically significant snowstorms in October, like the six inches of snow in Dayton in 1989 or the white Halloween in 1993, are becoming rarer, indicating a shift in climate patterns.
Q: Why do downtown metropolitan areas seem less prone to tornadoes?
A: While tornadoes can occur in urban areas—as seen with the Memorial Day tornado that impacted parts of Dayton—they happen less frequently in city centers. Nick explained this could be due to the “urban heat island effect.” Downtown areas have numerous buildings and asphalt surfaces that absorb and retain heat, creating a microclimate that can inhibit tornado formation. The absorbed heat is released slowly at night, keeping urban areas warmer than their surroundings. This temperature difference might affect storm development, making tornadoes less common in densely built-up areas.
Q: It seems like weather patterns often change around I-70, with different weather north and south of the interstate. Is there any truth to that?
A: Nick agreed that I-70 often appears to be a dividing line for weather patterns, especially noticeable with the rain-snow line during winter storms. While it’s not a literal force field, it serves as a geographic reference point. Factors contributing to this phenomenon include urban heat islands from cities like Dayton and Cincinnati, which can keep areas south of I-70 warmer. Additionally, geographic features like the Bellefontaine Ridge, the highest point in Ohio located northeast of Dayton, can influence local weather by affecting airflow and storm tracks.
Q: September is usually a good time for planting grass due to heavier precipitation, but we’ve had dry Septembers recently. What’s causing this trend?
A: Nick explained that the recent dry conditions in September and even August are due to persistent high-pressure systems, known as “ridging,” over the eastern United States. These systems block incoming moisture and storms, leading to prolonged dry spells and even drought conditions. This pattern affects activities like planting grass and contributes to record low precipitation levels. For instance, October was on track to be among the top ten or fifteen driest on record for Dayton.
Q: What’s the forecast for the upcoming winter?
A: Nick shared that we’re moving into an El Niño phase, characterized by warmer-than-average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. Typically, El Niño brings warmer and wetter conditions to our region. However, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which involves cooler water temperatures off the coast of Washington and Oregon, might also influence our weather by promoting high-pressure systems that lead to dry conditions. Nick anticipates a warmer-than-average winter with above-normal precipitation but expects snowfall to be below normal.
Q: During severe weather events, how many people are in the studio managing the coverage?
A: The WHIO weather team consists of four meteorologists: Chief Meteorologist Austin, Nick himself, Brittany, and another team member. Staffing during severe weather depends on the time of day. Nick mentioned that he primarily works weekend evenings and some weekdays. He humorously noted that he’s been on air for 23 of the 25 tornado events this year, earning recognition in the community as the “tornado guy.”
Q: Could you tell us more about the Northern Lights appearing in our region?
A: Nick elaborated on the increased sightings of the Northern Lights due to the sun’s current solar maximum phase, which features heightened sunspot activity and solar flares. When strong solar flares are directed toward Earth, they interact with our planet’s magnetic field, especially at the poles where the field is weakest, causing auroras. While Ohio hasn’t seen dramatic displays like those in Alaska, the strength of geomagnetic activity has allowed residents to witness the aurora’s colors this year. He also mentioned that strong solar storms can affect GPS, cell phone signals, and power grids, although no significant impacts have been observed locally.
Thank You
Thank you, Nick Dunn, for your insights into Ohio’s weather events especially Tornados.
Quote of the Week
“Kindness is the language the deaf can hear and the blind can see.” – Mark Twain
Welcome Guests
| Guest | Guest Of |
| Jane Harris | Cindy Lowndes |
| Nick Dunn | Speaker |
New Member Readings and Inductions
| Name | Sponsor | 1st 2nd 3rd Reading or Induction |
| Tom Conroy | Mike Bevis | Induction |
| David Wiedmeyer | Mike Creech | Induction |
Happy Bucks
| Member | Reason |
| Carol Smerz | Thank you to Nancy Lehren for her dedicated service as chair of the Childhood Health and Wellness Committee over many years! |
| Tom Novak | The flag assembly team set a new record last week by assembling over 200 flags! |
| Stan Fronzaglia | Finished the brain boot camp last night. |
Sergeants at Arms
| Member | Infraction |
| Everyone Not Wearing their Optimist Pin or an Optimist Shirt | You should have been wearing an Optimist pin or shirt. |
| Patrick Arehart | Was in a photo with a giant Rotary Club inflatable behind him. There were many “boos” and “hisses” when the photo was shown during the meeting. |
| Tom Conroy and David Wiedmeyer | They are new members and now they have their first fines! |
Club Membership Anniversaries
| Member | Joined | Years |
| Tom Young | November 2, 2021 | 3 |
Birthdays
| Suzanne Werts – October 30 |
| Deb Saunders – November 1 |
| Wendy Hattan – November 2 |
CNO Donations – Since 2013
Click here to see a summary of donations the club has made since 2013
Thank You Notes Received
No Thank You Notes Were Received This Week
Links to PowerPoint and Pictures
CLICK HERE to see the PowerPoint Slides from this week’s meeting